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pdfauthor={Frank E Harrell Jr},
pdftitle={Bayesian Analysis Plan}]{hyperref}
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\title{Bayesian Analysis and Monitoring Plan for a Clinical Trial}
\author{Frank E Harrell Jr PhD \\ \smaller Department of Biostatistics \\ Vanderbilt University School of Medicine \\
\texttt{f.harrell@vanderbilt.edu}}
\date{\today}
\begin{document}
\maketitle
\section{Background}
The paper by Oettle \emph{et al.}~\cite{oet07adj} provided evidence
for efficacy of gemcitabine in improving disease-free survival for
. . .
The results are shown in the figure below.\footnote{Knots
were placed at 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1, 1.5, 3, and 4
years. Ordinary least squares was used to fit this cumulative hazard
function. Simulations that follow are based on this fitted survival
curve, by drawing random standard exponentially-distributed random variables
and solving for time $t$ so that the fitted spline function equals
the exponential random variable.}
\fig{gem}
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